Let's put myself out there: I'm trying to run under 25 minutes.
This is not going to be easy for me but should be possible. I ran a 10k last month in 54:15 and I still had some in me. This gives me a VDOT of 36 (more on that in another post). I did it with definite negative splits, running a 5:40/km pace for the first 5k and 5:21 on the second. According to my Garmin, the course wasn't quite 10K but the reported paces should be accurate.
The question is: can I shave 20 seconds per km on a 5k run? I've trained reasonably well while being careful not to get injured, especially with the ice and snow. On the other hand, when I analyze my race, my two last km looked like this:
- km 9 5:15 pace HR=94% of max
- km 10 4:54 pace HR= 96% of max
My threee goals are:
- Acceptable goal: 26:22 This is what a VDOT of 36 should let me do this
- Challenging goal: 25:46 This allows me to move up to VDOT of 37
- Ultimate goal: 24:59 This would be my best 5k ever, and a VDOT of 38
The race plan is, assuming the conditions are right (no ice, clear course, low wind), I will start on a 5:05/km pace for the first km and see how I feel. The first km is a pain because of the start. I'll try to seed myself better than last time where I seeded myself too far back and got stuck behind the walkers. There were no such thing as walkers back in the eighties. I wasn't expecting it. Anyway, hopefully I run the first km in 5:03.
Next I will try to pick up to 5:02 and 5:00 for Km 2 and 3. I will then have to decide if I can go for 25. If I decide I have enough in the tank, I'll try for 4:58 and 4:55 for km 4 and 5.
Of course, precise pacing like that might be difficult, especially if GPS reception is poor. Also, it's annoying to look at the Garmin all the time. The gist of it though is: a tad over 5 min/km in the first 3 km, then try to finish strong in the last two km.
I'll let you know what happens on Sunday.